duced through error;
3. Or intentional for purposes of agri-terrorism and economic disruption, in
the case of non-state actors, or as an act
of aggression against an adversarial state.
Although hard to prove, some suspect the
foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Taiwan in 1997 was such an incident.
History of ASF
ASF’s slow but apparently unstop-
pable 21st-century march began in 2007 in
Georgia in Eastern Europe. The virus then
spread through the countries of the former
Eastern Bloc and into the Russian Federa-
tion states, reaching Ukraine in 2012 and
ASF appeared in China in 2018, leading to the depopulation of some 600,000
swine. A total of 22 of China’s 23 provinces are infected,1 including the major cities
of Shanghai and Beijing. Tet will usher in the Year of the Pig and cause increased
smuggling of pork-containing foods as people move across Asia and to North Amer-
ica to celebrate.
This slow ASF pandemic should have elicited a strong defensive posture in the
orders, depopulation of farms, and loss
of confidence in domestic pork markets
with an accompanying loss of consumer
Three classifications describe the
spread of transboundary diseases:
1. Natural, wherein a disease travels
with a migrating host;
2. Accidental, where a disease is intro-
Table 1. Recent outbreaks of foreign animal disease or transboundary disease in the U.S. A
short review of recent outbreaks of foreign animal diseases indicates that the U.S. is susceptible to diseases not normally seen in our livestock. These outbreaks frequently have steep
costs of income and livestock.
Exotic Newcastle Disease
Southwest, north to
Depopulation of 49. 5 million
chickens and turkeys
60,000 chickens killed
3.2% decrease in national
< 5,000 rabbits lost
51 horses infected, no deaths
Last outbreak in the U.S.
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